Geopolitical Orientation of Ukraine’s Population: Before and After the Conflict with Russia

The article is intended for the annual academic edition "Ukrainian Society. Monitoring Social Changes" of the Institute of Sociology of the NAS of Ukraine.

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The main objective of the article is the unambiguous distribution of respondents into groups according to their geopolitical orientation – European (Western) or Russian-Belarusian (Eastern) for the period of 2012–2014.
Units of analysis and variables. Respondents from the Autonomous Republic of Crimea are excluded from the data for 2012 and 2013 to ensure the comparability of results with the corresponding data for 2014. In order to achieve the objective of the article three variables of monitoring were used: a) the attitude of the respondents to the alliance with Russia and Belarus; b) the attitude of the respondents to joining the European Union; c) the attitude of the respondents to joining the NATO.
Main results. An important feature of Ukrainians’ attitude to further development is their ambiguity and ambivalence. A part of respondents (this share was particularly large in 2012) is equally positive about the alliance with Russia and Belarus as well as about joining the EU. In addition, there is a considerable part of those uncertain. It is this group of people (ambivalent and uncertain) that is the most interesting in terms of which category they should be finally allocated to – those of eastern orientation, those of western or those of their own.
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